Quantifying Climate & Catastrophe Risk

The Climate Change Risk Indicator  quantifies the impact of extreme weather events on specific locations by assessing the frequency and severity of hazards. It provides a location-specific hazard level that helps organizations understand their exposure to climate-related risks and informs targeted risk management strategies.

Key Features 

• Global coverage for extreme climate perils
• Five location-specific indicators for each peril

Climate Change Indicators

• Risk Indicator (Hazard Score) – Present Climate
• Risk Indicator (Hazard Score) – SSP2-4.5 Scenario (2050)
• Risk Indicator (Hazard Score) – SSP5-8.5 Scenario (2050)
• Risk Indicator (Hazard Score) – SSP2-4.5 Scenario (2080)
• Risk Indicator (Hazard Score) – SSP5-8.5 Scenario (2080)

Perils Coverage

• River Flood, 
• Tropical Cyclone, 
• Extreme Heat,
• Water stress

Climate Scenarios

• Present
• CMIP6 model projections for SSP2-4.5 
• CMIP6 model projections for SSP5-8.5

The Heat Risk Intelligence (HRI) framework quantifies the potential impacts of extreme heat on human workability, workforce capacity, and operational productivity. It scientifically integrates environmental heat conditions with human vulnerability through human heat balance, assessing how factors such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and physical workload influence the ability to sustain work under heat stress. HRI supports the assessment of current and future heat risks, helping organizations understand potential operational impacts and make informed decisions to strengthen workforce resilience and operational planning.

Key Features  

• Assesses heat risk by integrating environmental heat conditions with human physiological vulnerability.
• Evaluates workability and potential productivity loss across different activities and operational settings.
• Provides insights at monthly, weekly, and hourly timescales to support operational planning.
• Supports assessments of current heat risk and potential changes under future climate scenarios.
• Helps identify periods of elevated heat risk to inform workforce planning and adaptation strategies.

Approach

The HRI framework evaluates the interaction between environmental heat conditions and human heat balance by considering:

• Environmental heat conditions: Air temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure.
• Human vulnerability: Physical workload, metabolic heat production, age, and gender.
• Workability assessment: Thermal Work Limit (TWL) calculations to evaluate the capacity to sustain work under prevailing environmental conditions.
• Operational impact assessment: Translation of heat-related workability constraints into potential workforce capacity and productivity impacts.

Climate Scenarios

• Present
• CMIP6 model projections for SSP2-4.5 
• CMIP6 model projections for SSP5-8.5

NC5R is a high-resolution, pre-modelling hazard index product developed by a2s for the United States. It covers 7 major natural catastrophe perils and is designed to support fast, location-specific hazard assessment—especially valuable for underwriters and risk managers during early-stage analysis. 

Key Features  

• Covers 7 major natural perils across the U.S. for comprehensive risk screening
• Provides high-resolution hazard indices for precise, location-based evaluation
• Includes additional geospatial layers: distance to coastline, distance to fault lines, and elevation data
• Designed to support early-stage underwriting, site selection, and portfolio risk assessment
• Enhances risk management workflows through faster, data-driven decision-making

Approach

The NC5R product is developed using a data-driven methodology that integrates high-resolution geospatial information with advanced hazard modeling techniques. It leverages historical event records and scientific hazard assessments to generate consistent, high-resolution hazard indices across different locations. This structured approach enables users to accurately and efficiently evaluate natural catastrophe risks, supporting early-stage underwriting, asset screening, and comprehensive risk management strategies.

Climate Compliances and Declarations

a2s has deep expertise in navigating climate-related compliances and declarations across different regions. We assist businesses in meeting their climate compliance and sustainability objectives effectively.

• Understand and interpret climate regulations across multiple geographies
• Support businesses in achieving climate compliance requirements
• Guide clients on sustainability reporting and disclosure standards
• Help develop strategies aligned with evolving climate policies and frameworks

Climate Analytics and Model Development

a2s is dedicated to detailed analysis of climate change impacts. We cover every aspect of climate risk assessment—from climate model evaluation to hazard index calculation and quantifying acute and chronic climate risks. Our solutions are customized to address each client’s specific challenges.

• Evaluate climate models for accuracy and relevance
• Calculate hazard indices for various climate perils
• Quantify acute (extreme events) and chronic (long-term) climate risks
• Collaborate closely with clients to develop tailored, actionable solutions

Climate Model Evaluation

a2s conducts rigorous evaluation of CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) to support robust climate risk assessments. This includes an extensive meta-analysis of peer-reviewed literature assessing GCM performance across multiple climatic variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and geographic regions.

• Identification of quantitative metrics capturing critical climate dynamics such as long-term trends, inter-annual variability, and seasonal cycles
• Development and application of grid-resolved statistical methodologies to evaluate spatial accuracy of GCM outputs against observed climate data
• Use of multi-criteria ranking algorithms to score GCMs based on their ability to simulate key climate features
• Design of an ensemble weighting framework that integrates individual GCM rankings into a spatially explicit consensus projection, enhancing model reliability and reducing uncertainty